Some numbers make sense. Others don’t. Wepukhulu has four wives. Everyone gets that. Inflation dropped by 3.2 per cent in the first half of the year. What is that? What happened exactly? The economy grew by 5.7 per cent. What grew? What sense does that make to people reading ‘meat wrappers’ or listening to news on radio?
Business reporters write a lot of such stuff. Officials in designer suits, business people, development experts all churn out numbers that mostly don’t make sense. The numbers suggest either things have got better or worse. But you would have a hell of time figuring what improved or got worse.
The job of Kenya National Bureau of Statistics is to create numbers out of almost anything. Last week, they released their latest economic survey. A report about that in Citizen Digital was headlined, “Economy bounces to 5.7pc in first quarter.”
The economy expanded by 5.7 per cent in the first quarter of 2018 as compared to 4.8 per cent over the same period in 2017, the report said.
“Growth in the economy was supported by improved performance of the agricultural sector that bounced back from a slump of one per cent in 2017 owing to a prolonged drought to 5.2 per cent.”
The report spoke of a “recuperating agricultural industry”, “impressive turnaround”, “trade, manufacturing and real estate all bouncing back”, “impressive overall growth”, etcetera.
Does this describe the reality of most Kenyans today? Of course not.
And that is what underlines the importance of a commentary by Alex Awiti in the Star last week. It was headed, “Poverty defies growth in GDP.” All journalists should read it.
Africa is witnessing unprecedented growth, Awiti wrote. “Economic growth is impressive. Ghana, Ethiopia, Cote d’Ivoire, Senegal and Djibouti are among the top 10 fastest growing economies in the world. Rwanda and Tanzania are in the top 20. Moreover, about two-thirds of Africa’s economies are growing faster than the global economy.”
But what is the daily reality for most African people? Is this growth reflected in the living conditions on the continent? No.
According to the World Poverty Clock report, Africa remains the poorest part of the world. Seven of the poorest nations are in Africa. Over 430 million Africans live in extreme poverty, out of a population of about 1.3 billion.
In Kenya, 30 per cent (14.7 million) of an estimated 49.7 million people live in extreme poverty. Put simply, over 14 million people struggle to get basic things like food.
Awiti poses an important question: Why is GPD growth not translating into poverty reduction and an overall increase in prosperity?
“Africa’s growth story, viewed alongside its enduring poverty, is a powerful indictment of the notion that GDP growth trickles down. There is no such a thing as trickle-down,” Awiti writes.
In other words the wealth is concentrated in the hands of a few. Even if the economy grew by 20 per cent annually for, say, ten years, as long as there are no deliberate efforts to distribute the wealth fairly, poverty will still persist.
“While Africa has made considerable progress in building physical infrastructure, including roads, railways and expansion of power generation, very little has been achieved with regard to investments in people,” Awiti writes.
That means investing in food justice, water and sanitation, housing, healthcare, education – putting money into people’s basic needs. That requires breathing life into the Constitution’s stipulations on economic and social rights.
It is now an established fact that poverty is not merely about economics – it is a question of justice.
Journalists should rethink their fascination with numbers that show false prosperity. Rosy headlines like “Economy bounces to 5.7pc in first quarter” mean very little.
